INTRO
Muth was an overwhelmingly likely winner of this year’s Preakness prior to his being scratched on Wednesday after coming down with a fever. Muth, trained by Bob Baffert, might be the best three year old in the country and his scratch changes EVERYTHING. More on that later.
In recent years the Preakness has become a second class race as virtually no trainer of a Kentucky Derby horse wants to run his horse back in two weeks. The Triple Crown schedule has been in place for years but racing has dramatically changed. Top horses used to run as many as 20 times a year. Now trainers like at least four weeks between races and prefer to run top horses only a few times a year. As result, the Preakness lately has consisted of the Derby winner, one or two other Derby horses and a bunch of horses that didn’t qualify for the Derby. The Derby winner almost always runs because you can’t win the Triple Crown if you don’t win the Preakness.
But there’s a twist this year. Because trainer Baffert remains banned from the Derby by Churchill Downs, he has pointed his top two horses for the Preakness. One of them, Muth, might well have been the favorite in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. But now Muth is scratched! There are only eight remaining horses entered in the Preakness (a contrast from the 20 in the Derby, a race filled with no-hopers). But 38 percent of them come from Baffert and legendary D. Wayne Lukas, the 88-year old Antigo native. That’s relevant because Baffert and Lukas have a combined 14 Preakness wins, including 13 of the past 30. (Baffert has eight and Lukas has six.)
Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan is here and can’t be dismissed. However, he got an absolute dream trip unbothered on the rail while the other contenders were losing ground and banging into each other in the middle of the track. Rain is in the forecast which would help Mystik Dan.
I pulled off an incredible feat in last year’s Preakness when I picked the top four finishers in exact 1-2-3-4 order! I’ve never done that before in any of my posted picks in Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup races. I had a big Derby and many of my suggested wagers cashed for huge money. While my top pick was out of the money, the rest of my top five all came in.
The Preakness is unlikely to produce big wagering payouts as the field is smaller than the Derby. I’ll list and assess the field in post position order.
THE FIELD
#1 MUGATU He doesn’t belong in the race. He’s run 12 times with only one win and most of the races were slow.
#2 UNCLE HEAVY He has a good trainer and a great jockey. But he seems badly overmatched.
#3 CATCHING FREEDOM He ran a good fourth in the Kentucky Derby but was several lengths behind the three horses that hit the wire in a near three-way dead heat. Trainer Brad Cox almost never runs his horses on only two weeks rest so it’s noteworthy he’s doing it with this horse. He is a deep closer and likely needs a fast pace to burn out the front runners. He seems one cut below the top horses but does have a chance.
#4 MUTH Scratched.
#5 MYSTIK DAN Trainer Ken McPeek and rider Brian Hernandez combined to win both the Derby and the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago, the first time a trainer-jockey combo has pulled off that double in nearly 75 years. Hernandez gave Dan a spectacular ride in a Derby in which many others had bad trips. But Derby winners usually run strongly in the Preakness and this horse relishes moisture in the track and there’s rain in the forecast.
#6 SEIZE THE GREY If one of the four big long shots wins, I think it’ll be this one. Trained by Wayne Lukas, this horse ran two weeks ago at Churchill Downs, winning a one mile stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard. As stated above, horses that win the Derby usually run well in the Preakness so it’s logical that a horse that ran well on Derby day but not in the Derby may also run well. This horse is bred to run long so the stretch-out from the race two weeks ago may help. He should be on or close to the lead. It would be a story for the ages if Lukas could pull this off, especially at the expense of his long-ago nemesis Baffert. But in order to do it, Grey still needs significant improvement over his previous races.
#7 JUST STEEL This is Lukas’ other horse and he’s here because Lukas just can’t help himself. Just Steel ran a stinky 17th in the Derby. As mentioned, trainers don’t run horses frequently anymore but that doesn’t apply to Lukas. This is Just Steel’s sixth start of the year and 13th of his career.
#8 TUSCAN GOLD With the scratch of Muth, this horse now has a huge chance to win. Tuscan has raced only three times and has only one win but has shown dramatic improvement in each race and is the most well-rested horse in the race, not having run in two months. Trainer Chad Brown scratched this horse from last week’s easier Peter Pan stakes in New York and Brown almost never runs his horses over their level. The breeding is sensational for this distance. The jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, is very good. The horse will likely be running in the middle of the pack in this eight horse field and has finished all three of his previous races very strongly. I have no negatives on this horse.
#9 IMAGINATION Baffert’s “other” horse and this one is ridden by arguably the most famous jockey in the world of the last 40 years. Frankie Dettori has been the most accomplished rider in Europe for decades, and the most flamboyant. He retired from European racing last year but is now riding full time in America and doesn’t seem to have lost anything at age 53. And the horse is pretty good too. Imagination has finished first or second in all six of his starts. He won a stakes earlier in the year but finished only second in a weak running of the Santa Anita Derby. For weeks I was convinced this year’s Preakness was Baffert’s race. Since he was banned from the Derby, he could point his top two horses to a depleted Preakness field. While the best one, Muth, is gone. Imagination is still here. Baffert wants this race badly so he can “stick it” to Churchill Downs and to his many critics. As for the race itself, I think Frankie will put Imagination on the lead. Baffert horses have gone wire-to-wire so many times that you can’t count them.
PREDICTION
| Horse | Projcted Odds |
|---|---|
| #8 Tuscan Gold | 7-2 |
| #9 Imagination | 2-1 |
| #3 Catching Freedom | 7-2 |
| #5 Mystik Dan | 8-5 |
| #6 Seize the Grey | 12-1 |
| #2 Uncle Heavy | 20-1 |
| #7 Just Steel | 9-1 |
| #1 Mugatu | 30-1 |
SUGGESTED WAGERS
(in order of preference)
Bet #8 to win place and show (adjust according to you budget)
Bet one-third the above amount on #9 to win place and show
$10 exacta 8-9 with 3-6-8-9 ($60)
$5 exacta 3-6-8-9 with 8-9 ($30)
$30 exacta box 8-9 ($60)
$2 trifecta 8-9 with 3-8-9 with 2-3-5-6-8-9 ($32)
$1 superfecta 8-9-3 with 5-6 ($2)
SPECIAL WAGER
$10 daily double using #8 and #9 in Race 13, the Preakness, with #1 Armando K in Race 14 ($20)
PIMLICO TURF RACES
As of this writing, there is a forecast for rain and some, or all, of the Pimlico turf races could be moved to the main track. The following plays are suggested ONLY if the races are on the turf. If they are switched to the main track: NO PLAY. All are long shots.
Race 1, #6 Maximillions Dream (10-1)
Race 5, #1 Cooter’s Revenge (12-1)
Race 9, #1 Lucky Jeremy (10-1)
Race 11, #6 Smooth B (12-1)
Race 12, #9 Beatbox (5-1), #5 Running Bee (9-2) and #12 Fantastic Again (12-1)
BEST BET OF THE DAY
In Pimlico Race 14, bet #1 Armando B (5-2) to win place and show
