Belling.com

My friends,

This is devastating. I’m furious and very sad, but I want to start with gratitude. Thank you to every one of you for doing everything you could to prevent this outcome. You did everything we asked and more – giving money, knocking doors, making phone calls, having difficult conversations with loved ones, showing up with joy and enthusiasm and determination. We did our very best and still fell short, but it wasn’t for lack of doing the hard, necessary work of campaigning and election.

When I broke the news to my daughters this morning, one still wearing her Kamala shirt, my 10 year old did the math quickly and said, “There’s only one more presidential election until I get to vote.” This is a scary time for so many of us in the US and around the world, but nothing is permanent and giving up is not an option.

Despair is the autocrat’s most powerful tool. They want us to disengage, to feel it’s all futile, to retreat to our own private corners. We will NOT. The future is NOT WRITTEN yet, and we have more knowledge and resources than we did when we faced this 8 years ago. Granted, this is a much more dangerous situation, but we also have much more political power now and a well-oiled field and fundraising machine that will help us maintain and build our power at the local, state, and national level in every election. They will overreach, and we will hold them accountable by directing the electoral backlash.

For instance, in 2016, we had only 7 state Dem trifectas while Republicans had 23. Today, we have 17 Dem trifectas, and the GOP still only has 23. 40% of Americans live in a state with a Dem trifecta, and millions more live in blue regions in the midst of red states. We must get ourselves ready—physically and psychologically—to resist and refuse to accept illegitimate directives from the Trump administration.

Resistance to immoral and unjust laws is a great American tradition. Oppression is as well. Throughout history, people have joined together in difficult times to help each other and make change. And so will we.

There are a couple of things you can do right now to get started:

1) I’ve said it for years, but you need to order abortion medication right now. Go to AidAccess.org and have it shipped to you. Abortion will likely be completely unavailable in a matter of months; this is a top priority for Trump/Vance/Project 2025 and it will almost certainly be far more dangerous and difficult to access abortion meds by mail very soon. We need to take care of ourselves and each other. It has a very long shelf life and is indistinguishable from a miscarriage. Use a private browser and delete your emails.

2) Download Signal and use it for messaging. We don’t know how effective Trump will be at going after his political opponents, but we should all practice good security hygiene with our organizing and communications. Signal is encrypted and makes auto-delete easy, and it is less likely to be manipulated into collaborating with law enforcement and turning over our data than major companies like Apple, Google, Meta, etc.

3) Recurring donations. Money made a huge difference in races around the country. So did our field operations. Find a candidate you care about and give a recurring donation amount that is meaningful to you. Here’s my link. I also recommend giving to the State Senate Democratic Committee, because the Senate is the most likely to flip in 2026, preventing a potential GOP trifecta here (more on that later).

4) Our most urgent campaign work is the upcoming April election. Speaking of candidates, we must elect Susan Crawford to the Supreme Court. Currently, the court is 3-3, and this seat will determine whether we have a conservative court that is a Trump/Vos rubber stamp again, or whether we keep the Wisconsin democracy we’ve just rekindled. There will also be important local elections, and we need to make sure we are electing strong Democratic candidates (even in nonpartisan races) everywhere, at every level.

5) Keep informed and support our journalists. In a time of increased and unified government power, we need our Fourth Estate even more. I never canceled my WaPo subscription because it doesn’t hurt Bezos, but the loss of millions of subscribers means hundreds of excellent journalists will likely be fired. Subscribe to your local papers and to a few national outlets like NY Times or Washington Post. You won’t like everything they print—nor should you in a diverse democracy like ours—but it’s true what they say: democracy dies in darkness. Supporting trustworthy legitimate media is a necessary and powerful tool for combating fascism.

6) Search for understanding, not blame. Of course we’re angry and devastated. But we don’t fully have the data about who and how and where this election went wrong, and we certainly don’t know enough about why. It may be tempting to cast blame on people or places we think failed us by not showing up or voting wrong. Please be careful about making assumptions and generalizations, or blaming demographic groups and further dividing us. If we are going to survive this and overcome Trumpism, we need to expand our tent and take a clear eyed look at what happened, not simply assume whatever narratives our curated info diets are pushing. There are Democratic voters in every community in this country, and in every demographic group imaginable. The reverse is true as well. Every one of us is an individual, and we should not be damned or praised because most others who share our characteristics voted a certain way. Trump thrives on division and group denigration—let’s not emulate the worst of him.

Now, about Harris. She was as close to a flawless candidate as we could have asked for. She brought enormous energy, discipline, and fundraising like we’ve never seen. Her debate performance was incredible, and her mastery on the stump and in interviews was inspiring. She made no unforced errors. I cannot accept any explanation that blames her, the candidate, for this loss. There are certainly criticisms to be had of her campaign’s strategic choices, for instance focusing on democracy/fascism in the closing days rather than the economy or abortion. But overall, she executed as good of a campaign given her 107 days as anyone could have. The circumstances facing Democrats were not of her own making. And given the scale of this loss, it’s hard to think anything would have changed the outcome.

This election is both complicated and very simple. Complicated because how could our country so willingly walk into authoritarianism, elect someone so manifestly unfit, dangerous, and malignant? But simple, because we have a deeply unpopular incumbent, are still reeling from COVID, social and economic disruption, the biggest inflationary period of most of our lifetimes, and countries all over the world are throwing out their incumbent leaders. We knew it was incredibly close, even though we didn’t want to believe it.

If there is one bright spot it’s that Dems in Wisconsin are likely to take the state senate majority in 2026, thanks to massively outperforming national GOP headwinds and sweeping ALL FOUR competitive seats last night! We went from 11-22 to 15-18 last night. The Assembly likely won 45 seats, taking them from 36-63 to 45-54. The Assembly is a harder lift given the GOP-friendly map, but the 3 Senate seats we need to win are the same or more favorable than the 4 we just flipped. With the governorship up in 2026, a Democratic trifecta is very much in reach! We also reelected Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

In addition, abortion referenda continue to prove that even the reddest states are pro-choice. Seven states, including Montana and Missouri, passed measures to protect abortion rights, most by large margins. In Florida, the pro-choice amendment got 57% of the vote, 1.5 million more votes than the antis, and it only failed because the GOP raised the threshold for passage to an outrageous 60%. Even so, abortion rights activists almost got there — battling an illegal and false state-funded multi-million dollar propaganda blitz. In Nebraska, dueling amendments confused voters but even so, the pro-choice measure came very close to winning. If you don’t already, subscribe to Jessica Valenti’s substack and buy her book.

Part of what makes this so painful is seeing how many of our fellow countrymen voted for Trump because of or despite who he is—a racist, misogynist, fraudster, sexual assaulter, serial liar, felon, and traitor. They just liked that bacon was cheaper when he was president.

It’s disorienting and heartbreaking to see that America is not what we deserve, and to know that many people here and around the world will suffer grievous harm and death as a result of this election. While certainly many voted for him because of his rank misogyny and racism, many others who voted for him in spite of or indifferently to those things will be shocked by what they actually get from his presidency—a wrecked economy, morality policing by white Christian nationalists, civil unrest, and more handouts to right-wing billionaires at our expense. It’s our job to make that known, win back some of these voters, and repair fractures within our coalition, so that we can triumph next time. This is hard work, but hard work is joyful work.

Together, we can move forward. We must. We will. Read this, and then LFG.

Yours in service and solidarity,
Kelda

HOW I BROKE MY BIIGGEST SCOOP IN MILWAUKEE

The untold story of my exclusive on the killing of the Milwaukee Sentinel

By Mark Belling, WISN-AM

It started with a conversation after an AA meeting.

* * *
(What follows is my first-ever explanation of how I in 1995 broke a news story that roiled  local media and produced years of speculation and rumors about who spilled the beans in what was a tightly guarded secret at Milwaukee’s then media monolith.

The internet wasn’t a thing yet. The only cable news channel was CNN. Newspapers and television were the dominant news sources for almost all Americans. In Milwaukee, one company, Journal Communications, controlled much of it. The Milwaukee-based company owned the legendary evening newspaper, the Milwaukee Journal, and the morning paper, the scrappy Milwaukee Sentinel. They were the two biggest circulation papers in the state with the Journal having a daily circulation of about 240,000 and the Sentinel 170,000. In addition, the company owned WTMJ-TV, usually the highest rated local news station, and WTMJ-AM, the top radio station in terms of listenership and the biggest FM music station, WKTI. The Journal Company essentially was the Milwaukee media.

Competitors chafed about this. Andy Potos, the general manager of Channel 6, fumed that the newspapers shilled for Channel 4 and the Journal radio stations. I used my suddenly hugely successful radio program to focus on the bias of all the Journal outlets and their tendency to use one outlet to pump up another. WKTI even paid a Journal gossip columnist to appear on their Reitman and Mueller morning show and the reporter, Meg Kissinger, would return the favor by writing frequent items about the hilarious stunts pulled by the two. It was all rather nauseating.

The Journal Company was huge. But things were changing. The web revolution wasn’t here yet but afternoon newspapers were dying all over the country. Readers preferred getting fresh news first thing in the morning. The Milwaukee Journal was the company’s flagship and still had the bigger circulation but the Sentinel was catching up. The Journal had a bigger staff and was the pet of the corporate leaders but the afternoon delivery time was leading it to dinosaur status.

What to do? They decided to kill the Sentinel. I found about it.)

* * *

I have broken scores of major news stories in my career, both as a traditional and award-winning journalist before I came to Milwaukee in 1989 and then as a talk show host after I got to WISN-AM. I was good at it. I have never ever revealed a confidential source. It’s one of the reasons people feel comfortable tipping me off to things.

Most people in the news business adhere to an unwritten rule that if a source has died, it is okay to reveal their identity. I don’t buy that in all cases, particularly if the info the source dished out was a result of a violation of the law or something like that. But in this case, my sources were merely telling me something the biggest news organization was trying to conceal. They’re mostly all dead now. So I’m telling the story and naming some names.

My radio station, WISN-AM, had recently been sold by Hearst Corporation to SFX Communications. We continued to share a building with Hearst’s WISN-TV but had no common ownership. An employee of the new corporation (who is still alive) gave me an astounding tip. To this day, I have never heard of anyone getting a tip on a major news story this way.

My acquaintance from the company is a member of Alcoholics Anonymous. A fellow AA member confided to him that he was rearranging all of his finances because his employer was going to have a major reorganization and some positions would be eliminated. The employer was Journal Communications and the reorganization was going to be ending the afternoon newspaper and moving the Journal to mornings with most of the Journal’s top bosses running a newly branded Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Some Sentinel employees would be retained but the Journal would be the dominant survivor. My acquaintance told me what his AA friend confided.

The story sounded very real and very credible but the sourcing was ridiculously thin. (The Journal Company employee who passed along the information died many years ago.) I obviously needed confirmation from somebody either in the company or in a position to know everything.

Newspapers are hornet’s nest of gossip. (At least they were when actual news hounds worked there and there were a lot of them, as opposed to the glorified stenographers who practice what “journalism” has degenerated into.) I figured if something like this was going on, a lot of people had to know. I started with the union that represented the reporters. Joel McNally, who held a zillion jobs at the paper before the post-merger downsizing led him to other local media gadfly opportunities, was the head of the union. I called him up. He said I was probably wrong. Joel told me he had heard nothing. There had been rumors over the years of something like this but nothing lately. All quiet, he said. This invigorated me. If McNally didn’t know, no reporters knew. I was sitting on a scoop that nobody else had.

I was in my sixth year in Milwaukee and already had a lot of sources and some pretty well-connected friends. I tried to figure out who would know and might be willing to spill the beans to me if I promised I wouldn’t name them. I started with Bob Dye, the Journal Communications public relations chief. Dye wouldn’t confirm anything but his denial was mealy-mouthed. I already had twenty years in the news business behind me and I’ve been lied to, spun and misled a lot. Dye’s denial kept including what I perceived as hedges. Saying stuff like “nothing is happening right now.” I was sharp enough to know that the use of words like “right now” constituted a non-denial denial. Still, I got nothing from Dye. I worked him hard. I have found that public relations people can be great sources because they have a need to build relationships in the future with reporters. I thought I could get Dye to give it up. He didn’t but his weaseling around convinced me I was on the right track.

The head of Journal Communications at the time was a gruff old guy named Robert Kahlor. He was old school, to say the least. He was a downtown insider and on the boards of lots of civic organizations. I knew there was zero chance Kahlor would spill the beans on his own deal but thought there was a good chance he would give a heads-up to some of his buddies. The dominant Milwaukee insider group at the time was the Greater Milwaukee Committee. It’s still around but in a very invisible type of way. Not in the 1990s. The GMC had its finger in everything. The executive director was a former Kohler Corporation executive named Bob Milbourne. He had been on my show a few times and was very savvy in knowing how to handle people in the media, even a wildcard like me.

I called Milbourne and asked him if he knew anything. He confirmed the story. He seemed to know everything. He said there would be one paper and the leadership would mostly be people from the Milwaukee Journal. He said company executives were convinced circulation would be higher than at either the existing Journal or Sentinel. They could save a fortune by consolidating. I didn’t ask Milbourne how he I knew but I knew it had to be Kahlor or somebody like that.

Now, I knew I was right. But I wanted more. Putting a story out there like this and being wrong would have been humiliating and would have killed my credibility. I also understood that nothing would infuriate the reporters for the Journal and Sentinel more than to know I scooped them on a story in their own building. I also knew many would freak if they knew some of their jobs were going to be eliminated.

I tried Dye again. More non-denial denials. I called a few other people in the company and don’t remember anymore who they were because none gave me anything. Some probably didn’t know and others were just lying to keep the secret a secret. I figured there was a good chance the mayor’s office would be alerted to something like this. The problem was that then-Mayor John Norquist hated me. I was constantly dogging him. Still, if I’ve learned anything it’s that sources don’t have to like you or be on your side ideologically. (I’ve probably gotten more big stories from Democrats than Republicans over the years.) My recollection is that Norquist didn’t get on the phone but one of his aides called me back. I was told the mayor didn’t have any specifics. I felt that was a coded confirmation.

I went back to my company acquaintance who had the talk with his AA friend. He provided way more detail. The AA member (I knew who it was) was clearly in a position to know everything).

I decided to go with what I had. I went on the air and said that the Sentinel was to be killed and there would be one surviving newspaper. I said I didn’t know when this was going to happen and knew nothing about how it would be structured and whether it would be called a merger. I didn’t know the name of the combined paper or how many people would be fired. I did say the surviving paper would have more leaders and staffers from the Journal than the Sentinel.

All sorts of people reacted and called me after I put the story out. But, in what has come to be typical of a Milwaukee media that was drifting toward being a lazy clique, nobody else picked up on anything. They didn’t even ask the Journal company if the story was true. Nothing appeared in the Journal or the Sentinel. It was a Tuesday, as I recall.

I was told that the two newsrooms were in a tizzy. They didn’t know if the story was true. Some reporters obviously thought I was a half-cocked radio hack in over my head and others, who knew me better, knew I was likely onto something.

I doubled down. I spent an hour on it the following day and tried to shame the paper into commenting and shame local TV stations into asking questions. I was trying to flesh the story out, hoping somebody else in the know would talk, preferably to me. In the meantime, back at the Journal Sentinel building reporters were demanding to know from their bosses what was going on.

I called Dye, the company flack, again. I worked him hard, telling him the company and the papers’ credibility would be shot by covering up a story they themselves were involved in. Dye softened and said he had nothing for me right now. Hmmmm.

A local TV station covered the story on (I think) Thursday. It never quoted my reporting but merely said “rumors” were swirling. Finally, something appeared in print. The Sentinel ran an item seemingly denying my story. It quoted Keith Spore, the Sentinel editor and a rising star in the corporation. Spore said reports of the paper’s demise were wrong. “Milwaukee will continue to have its morning newspaper,” he said.

My instincts were that Spore was lying through his teeth. The denial was fuzzy and oddly worded. This was going on around the time Bill Clinton was weasel-wording about everything. Still, I was concerned. Lots of people started mocking me saying I had the story wrong.

I called Milbourne to triple-check our earlier conversation. Bob told me I had the story exactly right and then said “My impression is this will happen sooner rather than later. It is imminent.” I knew Milbourne was telling me the truth. He had no reason to lie and he was the best connected guy in town. He knew. And, as a result, I knew.

I went back on the air and tripled-down. I said Spore’s denial was a crock and that the axe falling was imminent. In the meantime, two top editors at the Journal weren’t returning my calls, I said. If I was wrong, they’d be denying it in my face and rubbing it in. Their silence told me they didn’t want to be lying on the record. I hammered and hammered the story.

The following Monday, the Sentinel called a staff meeting. Somebody went out and got Milwaukee Sentinel baseball caps for everybody to wear. They knew what was coming. In the meeting, the staff was told the two newspapers would be “merged” and there would be open competition for all positions on the staff. A news release followed. Both papers then plastered the story on page one spinning it as best they could.

My radio management wanted to take full advantage of my huge scoop. We commissioned a big ad to be placed in both papers. It featured my picture and the station’s call letters with a big headline that read: “When The Journal Company Decided To Kill A Newspaper, You Didn’t Read It In This Paper.” And, under my picture, the headline read: “MARK BELLING’S Listeners Heard About It One Week In Advance.” The Journal and Sentinel both refused to run it. It is currently framed and hanging in my office.

* * *

For years people have asked who tipped me off. Wild rumors started. The weirdest actually had a shred of truth amid a story that was preposterous. That rumor stated I was having lunch at the University Club with Summerfest boss Bo Black and we overheard Bob Milbourne blabbing about it at an adjacent table. Panelists on my then TV show all heard it and were convinced it was true. The weird thing is Milbourne was the key source but nothing was ever overheard at a lunch involving Bo Black. Bo and I did go to lunch there once and maybe somebody saw us together. Maybe Milbourne was in there. Who knows? But it had nothing to do with getting this story.

That story was also one of about 900 rumors over the years dealing with me and Bo. Speculation about what kind of relationship we had was a constant subject of gossip. Bo, a Milwaukee icon and a wonderful human being, passed away several years ago. The University Club is closed too but, in a total coincidence, I live very close to it.

A former panelist on the TV show (he was a blowhard) told people that I simply took a wild guess. Indeed, there had been speculation for years of killing off one of the papers. The idea that I would guess is idiotic. I was making a huge name for myself. I was a constant critic of the media. Guessing, and being wrong, would have been fatal.

Others thought McNally from the union told me. I got along with Joel fine over the years and he was a spectacular panelist on the TV show. But he has never given me a news tip in either of our lives and often wrote critical things about me. I even heard that the Sentinel’s Spore leaked it to me. I never denied that even though it wasn’t true. Since Spore was forced to walk the plank with the inaccurate non-denial denial, if some people wanted to guess he was the blabber mouth that would be fine with me.

Bob Milbourne died this week. He left Milwaukee a few years after the Journal story and spent a long time as a big wheel in Columbus, Ohio. Bob Dye passed away a few years ago. My corporate employee who knew the Journal insider from AA is still alive but has struggled with health issues for many years. The Journal insider? He too passed away a long time ago. I am not naming him but not because of his role in leaking the newspaper story but because it would identify him as an AA member (although I am told it was never a secret).

Mark Belling
October 17, 2024

1. The Godfather

STRENGTHS: Brilliantly acted with Marlon Brando resurrecting his career and Al Pacino making his breakout on the way to becoming one of the greatest actors of all time. New York street scenes were remarkably realistic. Incredible musical score including Nino Rota’s theme. Historically accurate depiction of mid-century mob wars and accurate depiction of ruthless violence. Movie was far ahead of its time in portrayal of the anti-hero.

FLAW: One-dimensional movie never really gave any insight into the characters or what made them tick or any feel for their personal lives.

2. Goodfellas

STRENGTHS: Astonishingly realistic and credible look at mid-level Mafia operating in New York from the sixties through the eighties. Perfectly crafted characters based on real life figures portrayed in Henry Hill’s account of mob life and turning into government informant. Movie contrasted the glamour of mob life with the ugly reality of sociopathic behavior and amoral lack of loyalty. Star turn performance by Lorraine Bracco as the middle class girl seduced by mob life. Scene stealing performance by Joe Pesci as sociopathic mid-level mob thug. One of the great soundtracks of all time. “The Long Take” scene at New York’s Copacabana one of the greatest directorial scenes in cinema history.

FLAW: None.

3. The Godfather, Part 2

STRENGTHS: The perfect sequel in that it told both the back story of the days before The Godfather (Part 1) and after. Pacino’s performance as the calculating and emotion-less don was epic. Told the story of the mob’s move from the east to Las Vegas. Less romanticized than the original, Part 2 examined the brilliant calculating of mob bosses and their remorseless and unapologetic violence. Exposed the notion of “family” as Pacino character essentially kills everybody.

FLAW: Entirely forgettable music score.

4. The Irishman

STRENGTHS: Director Scorsese uses freedom of Netflix to take the time to tell a 45-year story tracing a hitman’s interactions with mob’s biggest figures. Will age well as YouTube snippets get tens of millions of views. Use of technology to make actors look younger and older was remarkable. Retrospective nature as dying mobster narrates whole movie by “confessing” to priest without really confessing was a creative device that worked. Not many picked up on it but the allegory of Hoffa’s daughter as God in judgment was brilliant. Greatest mob movie cast ever. Based on real life characters and historically accurate although the Hoffa assassination narrative is unproven. DeNiro at his best. Pacino at his best. Pesci at his best. Scene stealing performance by Stephen Graham as Tony Provenzano. Opening scene of DeNiro using walker in nursing home a great take-off on “The Long Take” from Goodfellas.

FLAW: Female characters and family life totally undeveloped

5. Donnie Brasco

STRENGTHS: Johnny Depp, before he went nutty, perfectly captures an undercover FBI agent almost developing “Stockholm Syndrome” as he identifies with mobsters he is busting. Realistic portrayal of mid-level mob life. Another great Pacino role as the mobster suckered in by Depp’s FBI agent.

FLAW: No mention of the extensive time “Donnie” and “Lefty” spent in real life working with Milwaukee mob.

6. A Bronx Tale

STRENGTHS: Chaz Palmentieri’s semi-autobiographical story of a kid growing up under the wing of a Bronx mafia boss. Credibly transitions from life as a little kid to teenager despite necessary change in actors. Great mob scenes including the beatdown of the bikers and the craps games in which bad luck losers were exiled to standing in the bathroom. Another great supporting cast role by DeNiro as the law-abiding dad who resented his son’s relationship with the mob boss (played by Palmentieri himself).

FLAW: Overly romanticized portrayal of mobster Sonny as nice father figure.

7. Casino

STRENGTHS: Visually beautiful look at Las Vegas in the sixties and seventies as the bob took control. Iconic performance by Sharon Stone as the hooker with no heart of gold, just a love for gold. Yet another scene-stealing performance by Pesci playing a character based on legendary mob goon Tony Spilotro. Based on real life characters and story. Excellent depiction of the push-shove of criminal mobsters muscling Vegas while also trying to be acceptable businessmen. Great “cheater’s justice” scene. Another Scorsese epic.

FLAW: Often compared to Goodfellas but not as good.

EXPLANATION:

This is a list of Mafia movies, not mob or gangster movies. Not included are many other mob movies in which the mob wasn’t specifically Italian, or the Mafia. Not included are TV shows like “The Sopranos” or “Boardwalk Empire.” Films with partial Mafia references like “Bugsy” and The Untouchables” were also excluded as they weren’t pure Mafia movies. Comedies with mob characters are also not included. The list is restricted to these seven because others don’t measure up.

By Mark Belling, WISN-AM

The 17-year old accused of wounding a mother and her son during a gun battle in Milwaukee’s Butterfly Park has had his bail drastically reduced by one of Milwaukee County’s most lenient judges. The two were struck in the crossfire of a gun battle that police say may have involved multiple individuals. 24 bullet casings were found.

The suspect, Ivan Wade, had his bail lowered Friday by Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Katie Kegel, a former public defender elected in 2021 with the support of most Milwaukee progressive organizations. Wade is no longer listed on the inmate locator list of the Milwaukee County Jail, an indication that he may no longer be in custody. Wade was charged as an adult with felony counts of first degree reckless injury and dangerous use of a weapon. His bail was originally set at $50,000.

Wade’s lawyer requested Friday for a reduction in bail. The request was opposed by Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm’s office. But Kegel sided with Wade and slashed the cash bail to $15,000 and applied a series of conditions.

The Butterfly Park June 15 gun battle attracted significant media attention and several politicians spoke out against the latest instance of children being struck by bullets. The child victim is six years old. State law allows judges to consider the safety of the community in setting bail but doesn’t require them to do so. In this instance, the bail reduction request was so egregious that even Chisholm’s assistant DA, Michelle Grasso, strenuously opposed it. But Kegel ignored her pleas. Let’s hope Wade doesn’t go on any more shootouts now that Kegel has sprung him.

Mark Belling
August 19, 2024

IRG Action and WILL Urge Voters to Vote Yes on August 13 Referendum Questions

Effort to Bring Accountability to Problematic Spending Practices by Wisconsin Governors

July 25, 2024

The News: IRG Action Fund and the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty have launched a six-figure, public awareness campaign urging voters to approve two Constitutional Amendments on the ballot during the August 13th Primary Election. Both organizations believe that these proposed amendments aim to preserve the constitutional checks and balances that vest spending authority with the Wisconsin Legislature and prevent any governor from acting outside of their authority with taxpayer money.

The Quotes: WILL Policy Director, Kyle Koenen, stated, “Unlike most states, Wisconsin’s governor can spend billions of dollars of federal funds without any approval from the legislature, the branch of government that has the power of the purse. WILL and IRG Action are partnering to preserve this fundamental check on the governor’s power and ensure that spending decisions are made by the representatives closest to the people.”

“Kids learn in school that the legislative branch has the power of the purse, but that’s not happening today when the governor spends federal dollars,” IRG Action Fund Executive Vice President Chris Reader said. “These amendments make certain that the legislative branch maintains that long-standing power and has oversight over how billions of tax dollars are being spent. With that oversight, the system is prime for special interests and the politically connected to influence spending decisions.”

Additional Background: Under current Wisconsin law, Wisconsin governors have the sole authority to accept and distribute federal funding. With this power, Governor Evers has single-handedly spent billions of dollars, including nearly $5 billion dollars during COVID-19, without any approval from state lawmakers.

On August 13th, voters will weigh in on two questions to amend the Wisconsin Constitution to bring more accountability over federal tax dollars flowing to the state. These amendments would help restore the power of spending back to Legislature and ensure that the Governor must receive approval before spending federal funds.

The amendment questions are as follows:

• Question 1: Shall Section 35 (1) of article IV of the Wisconsin constitution be created to provide that the legislature may not delegate its sole power to determine how moneys shall be appropriated?
• Question 2: Shall Section 35 (2) of article IV of the Wisconsin constitution be created to prohibit the governor from allocating any federal moneys the governor accepts on behalf of the state without the approval of the legislature by joint resolution or as provided by legislative rule?

The campaign will include, but is not limited to, radio ads, digital advertising and grassroots engagement campaigns. Both WILL and IRG Action have strong followings in the state and can effectively mobilize their networks to act ahead of the August 13th election.

Read more:
• Additional Information

• Amendments Quick Guide 

Read and share this release online.

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IRG Action Fund is the 501(c)(4) advocacy partner to the Institute for Reforming Government.

OVERVIEW

The winners of this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness are running in the Belmont Stakes and this looks like it could be a two-horse race, but neither the Derby nor Preakness winners are among the two. Instead, the two horses that seem to tower here are Sierra Leone, who finished second in the Derby in a three-horse photo finish despite having a wide and much rougher trip than the winner, and Mindframe, a horse making his third career start after two stunning runs so far. Derby winner Mystik Dan is running for the third time in five weeks and has benefited from incredible rides by jockey Brian Hernandez but is unlikely to run another big one. Seize the Grey, a horse I touted a bit in the Preakness but wasn’t bright enough to select or bet, is very unlikely to get the easy lead he had in the Preakness and isn’t likely here. There are a couple of long shots with a chance.

“I hear you went up to Saratoga and your horse naturally won.” Those Carly Simon lyrics in “You’re So Vain” have made Saratoga a household name even to people who don’t know horse racing. And, this year’s Belmont Stakes is at Saratoga, not Belmont Park, and that makes this year’s race very different and a much bigger deal. Saratoga in upstate New York and Keeneland in Kentucky are the two tracks that still draw massive crowds to come to the track. EVERYBODY in horse racing loves Saratoga. Running the Belmont there is a big, big deal. Belmont Park on Long Island is being rebuilt so at least the next two Belmont Stakes will be at Saratoga. That means one huge change: because of the configuration of the track, the normal Belmont Stakes marathon distance over 1 1/2 miles is not being used. This year’s race is instead run at 1 1/4 miles, the same distance as the Derby. And, just like the Derby, the race features a long run up the frontstretch the first time around and then a full lap.

A lot of rain is expected Thursday which could affect the turf races on Saturday’s outstanding card but shouldn’t have impact on the Belmont which, of course, is run on dirt. I’ll assess the field in post position order.

THE FIELD

#1 SEIZE THE GREY 88-year old Wisconsin native D. Wayne Lukas came back from the horse racing dead to train this longshot into the Preakness winners circle. He was coming off a win at a shorter distance two races earlier and was sharp as a tack over a speed favoring track in the Preakness. I kind of liked him in the Preakness but don’t think he has much of a shot here.

#2 RESILIENCE This horse has run three identical speed figures in a row and has a five week rest since running a very decent sixth in the Kentucky Derby. He should be close to the pace in the Belmont. He’s apparently been training well over the Saratoga training track. Hall of Fame trainer in Bill Mott. Won the Wood Memorial two starts back. Contender.

#3 MYSTIK DAN It’s hard to knock this horse who won the Derby and ran second in the Preakness. But his Derby win was aided by a trouble-free trip on the rail and his underrated jockey gave him another good ride in the Preakness. Very few three year olds run strong races in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

#4 THE WINE STEWARD This is a possible longshot winner. He always runs a good race and has three wins and three seconds in his six career starts. He’s bred to get the 1 1/4 mile distance and has tactical speed and will be close to the pace. Jockey Luis Suez has been riding him but he’s on Dornoch in this race. Replacement Manny Franco is a lesser known, but very good New York-based jockey who should fit this horse well.

#5 ANTIQUARIAN He actually nipped The Wine Steward last time out in the Peter Pan Stakes and like The Wine Steward has good tactical speed and will be close to the pace. Trainer Todd Pletcher has an outstanding record in the Belmont Stakes and that has been this horse’s target all along as he did not run in the Derby or Preakness. Hall of Fame jockey and top notch human being in rider John Velazquez.

#6 DORNOCH I have always felt this horse is overrated and overhyped because he is a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage. None of his three races this year has been special and he actually ran better last year as a two year old. But jockey Luis Saez is very aggressive and got off The Wine Steward to ride this one.

#7 PROTECTIVE Same owner and trainer as Mindframe but far less likely to win. He does have trainer Pletcher going for him but jockey Irad Ortiz, who rode him last time, chose the more talented Mindframe for the Belmont.

#8 HONOR MARIE This is a decent horse who ran very well two back in the Louisiana Derby and had an excuse for clunking in the Kentucky Derby, suffering through a rough trip. The horse has no tactical speed and will have to come from far back but he gets a rider upgrade with a switch to Florent Geroux. I have mixed feelings on this horse but mostly I just like several others more.

#9 SEIRRA LEONE There is nothing to dislike in this horse. He almost won the Derby, hitting the wire in a three horse photo finish, despite lugging in in the stretch and bumping the third place horse. Trainer Chad Brown has taken corrective action: he’s fitting the horse with a “bit” that give’s the rider more control of the horse’s mouth. And he dumps the former jockey and replaces him with Flavien Prat, ranked the third best rider in the entire world by Thoroughbred Racing Commentary. There’s more. Trainer Brown grew up just outside of Saratoga and desperately wants to win this race and has made it clear he believes Sierra was the best horse in the Derby. After the Derby, he shipped straight to Saratoga, skipping the Preakness to point for this race. He’s raced five times with three wins and two seconds and both of those losses were by a nose. This is a superior racehorse pointed specifically for this race and with a plan that seems to set him up to run a career best race.

#10 MINDFRAME If Sierra Leone loses, this one is the likely winner. I watched his career debut in person in a sprint at Gulfstream Park in Florida and it was an eye-popping run in which he destroyed a field in phenomenally fast time. He came back to romp in a route race at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day and was just as impressive as the Derby horses. He’s bred to stretch out again and his trainer, Todd Pletcher, has repeatedly gotten horses to run career best races in the Belmont Stakes. The same owner and trainer have Fierceness, the Derby favorite, but didn’t bother to enter him in the Belmont after the two had a tandem workout and Mindframe was much the best. Jockey Irad Ortiz dominates racing in New York and he and Sierra Leone’s rider (Prat) are the best two in the country. The one knock is that it is almost unheard of to win the Belmont Stakes in only your third career start.

(I find it very hard to separate Sierra Leone and Mindframe. Sierra may be the slightly likelier winner but Mindframe will have somewhat better odds)

PREDICTION

SOME WAGERS

Bet #9 Sierra Leone and #10 Mindframe to win and place (bet according to your budget)
$25 exacta box 9-10 ($50)
$10 exacta 9-10 with 2-5-9-10 ($60)
$5 exacta 2-5 with 2-5-9-10 ($30)
$3 exacta box 2-5-9-10 ($36)
$1 trifecta 9-10 with 2-5-9-10 with all ($48)
$2 trifecta 9 with 2-5-10 with with 2-4-5-10 ($18)
$1 exacta wheel 9-10 with all ($18)

OTHER SARATOGA SATURDAY RACES

In Race 3, play #8 Full Screen (7-2)
In Race 6, The Suburban, play both #6 Good Skate (20-1) and #8 Bendoog (2-1)
In Race 8, the Woody Stephens, play #7 Prince of Monaco (7-2)
In Race 11, the Manhattan, play #9 Measured Time (7-2) and a lesser amount on #6 Al Riffa (6-1)

By Mark Belling, WISN-AM

The convicted child sexual predator who has long operated Milwaukee’s famed Five O’Clock Steakhouse has just been charged in Hollywood, Florida with sex trafficking a minor.

Stelio Kalkounas is accused in federal court of recruiting an underage girl last year and trafficking her for commercial sex acts.

Despite Kalkounas’ notorious past, people have continued to patronize the pervert’s restaurant. Former Mayor Tom Barrett even held a fundraiser there. Bob Bauman, the alderman who represents the district the near west side restaurant is located in, has long defended Kalkounas saying people deserve a second chance. So much for that.

Kalkounas is already a convicted child predator based on charges in Illinois that he tried to recruit a teenage girl for sex. Kalkounas appeared in federal court in Florida yesterday. The FBI is asking that anyone else who has been victimized by Kalkounas to contact the agency.

Kalkounas’ family had operated steakhouses in Illinois before buying the famed 5 O’Clock Club from the Coerper family.

Mark Belling
May 17, 2024

INTRO

Muth was an overwhelmingly likely winner of this year’s Preakness prior to his being scratched on Wednesday after coming down with a fever. Muth, trained by Bob Baffert, might be the best three year old in the country and his scratch changes EVERYTHING. More on that later.

In recent years the Preakness has become a second class race as virtually no trainer of a Kentucky Derby horse wants to run his horse back in two weeks. The Triple Crown schedule has been in place for years but racing has dramatically changed. Top horses used to run as many as 20 times a year. Now trainers like at least four weeks between races and prefer to run top horses only a few times a year. As result, the Preakness lately has consisted of the Derby winner, one or two other Derby horses and a bunch of horses that didn’t qualify for the Derby. The Derby winner almost always runs because you can’t win the Triple Crown if you don’t win the Preakness.

But there’s a twist this year. Because trainer Baffert remains banned from the Derby by Churchill Downs, he has pointed his top two horses for the Preakness. One of them, Muth, might well have been the favorite in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. But now Muth is scratched! There are only eight remaining horses entered in the Preakness (a contrast from the 20 in the Derby, a race filled with no-hopers). But 38 percent of them come from Baffert and legendary D. Wayne Lukas, the 88-year old Antigo native. That’s relevant because Baffert and Lukas have a combined 14 Preakness wins, including 13 of the past 30. (Baffert has eight and Lukas has six.)

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan is here and can’t be dismissed. However, he got an absolute dream trip unbothered on the rail while the other contenders were losing ground and banging into each other in the middle of the track. Rain is in the forecast which would help Mystik Dan.

I pulled off an incredible feat in last year’s Preakness when I picked the top four finishers in exact 1-2-3-4 order! I’ve never done that before in any of my posted picks in Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup races. I had a big Derby and many of my suggested wagers cashed for huge money. While my top pick was out of the money, the rest of my top five all came in.

The Preakness is unlikely to produce big wagering payouts as the field is smaller than the Derby. I’ll list and assess the field in post position order.

THE FIELD

#1 MUGATU He doesn’t belong in the race. He’s run 12 times with only one win and most of the races were slow.

#2 UNCLE HEAVY He has a good trainer and a great jockey. But he seems badly overmatched.

#3 CATCHING FREEDOM He ran a good fourth in the Kentucky Derby but was several lengths behind the three horses that hit the wire in a near three-way dead heat. Trainer Brad Cox almost never runs his horses on only two weeks rest so it’s noteworthy he’s doing it with this horse. He is a deep closer and likely needs a fast pace to burn out the front runners. He seems one cut below the top horses but does have a chance.

#4 MUTH Scratched.

#5 MYSTIK DAN Trainer Ken McPeek and rider Brian Hernandez combined to win both the Derby and the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago, the first time a trainer-jockey combo has pulled off that double in nearly 75 years. Hernandez gave Dan a spectacular ride in a Derby in which many others had bad trips. But Derby winners usually run strongly in the Preakness and this horse relishes moisture in the track and there’s rain in the forecast.

#6 SEIZE THE GREY If one of the four big long shots wins, I think it’ll be this one. Trained by Wayne Lukas, this horse ran two weeks ago at Churchill Downs, winning a one mile stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard. As stated above, horses that win the Derby usually run well in the Preakness so it’s logical that a horse that ran well on Derby day but not in the Derby may also run well. This horse is bred to run long so the stretch-out from the race two weeks ago may help. He should be on or close to the lead. It would be a story for the ages if Lukas could pull this off, especially at the expense of his long-ago nemesis Baffert. But in order to do it, Grey still needs significant improvement over his previous races.

#7 JUST STEEL This is Lukas’ other horse and he’s here because Lukas just can’t help himself. Just Steel ran a stinky 17th in the Derby. As mentioned, trainers don’t run horses frequently anymore but that doesn’t apply to Lukas. This is Just Steel’s sixth start of the year and 13th of his career.

#8 TUSCAN GOLD With the scratch of Muth, this horse now has a huge chance to win. Tuscan has raced only three times and has only one win but has shown dramatic improvement in each race and is the most well-rested horse in the race, not having run in two months. Trainer Chad Brown scratched this horse from last week’s easier Peter Pan stakes in New York and Brown almost never runs his horses over their level. The breeding is sensational for this distance. The jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, is very good. The horse will likely be running in the middle of the pack in this eight horse field and has finished all three of his previous races very strongly. I have no negatives on this horse.

#9 IMAGINATION Baffert’s “other” horse and this one is ridden by arguably the most famous jockey in the world of the last 40 years. Frankie Dettori has been the most accomplished rider in Europe for decades, and the most flamboyant. He retired from European racing last year but is now riding full time in America and doesn’t seem to have lost anything at age 53. And the horse is pretty good too. Imagination has finished first or second in all six of his starts. He won a stakes earlier in the year but finished only second in a weak running of the Santa Anita Derby. For weeks I was convinced this year’s Preakness was Baffert’s race. Since he was banned from the Derby, he could point his top two horses to a depleted Preakness field. While the best one, Muth, is gone. Imagination is still here. Baffert wants this race badly so he can “stick it” to Churchill Downs and to his many critics. As for the race itself, I think Frankie will put Imagination on the lead. Baffert horses have gone wire-to-wire so many times that you can’t count them.

PREDICTION

SUGGESTED WAGERS
(in order of preference)

Bet #8 to win place and show (adjust according to you budget)
Bet one-third the above amount on #9 to win place and show
$10 exacta 8-9 with 3-6-8-9 ($60)
$5 exacta 3-6-8-9 with 8-9 ($30)
$30 exacta box 8-9 ($60)
$2 trifecta 8-9 with 3-8-9 with 2-3-5-6-8-9 ($32)
$1 superfecta 8-9-3 with 5-6 ($2)

SPECIAL WAGER

$10 daily double using #8 and #9 in Race 13, the Preakness, with #1 Armando K in Race 14 ($20)

PIMLICO TURF RACES

As of this writing, there is a forecast for rain and some, or all, of the Pimlico turf races could be moved to the main track. The following plays are suggested ONLY if the races are on the turf. If they are switched to the main track: NO PLAY. All are long shots.

Race 1, #6 Maximillions Dream (10-1)
Race 5, #1 Cooter’s Revenge (12-1)
Race 9, #1 Lucky Jeremy (10-1)
Race 11, #6 Smooth B (12-1)
Race 12, #9 Beatbox (5-1), #5 Running Bee (9-2) and #12 Fantastic Again (12-1)

BEST BET OF THE DAY

In Pimlico Race 14, bet #1 Armando B (5-2) to win place and show

OVERVIEW

The seemingly best three year old in the country is not in this year’s race because he is trained by the notorious Bob Baffert, who remains banned at all tracks owned by Churchill Downs, Incorporated, including the namesake track that hosts the Derby. In years past, owners of Baffert-trained horses would send them to another trainer so they could run in the Derby but those horses always regressed when moved away from Baffert’s “bag of tricks.” The owner of Muth decided this year to keep the horse with Baffert and tried to sue to force his way into the race. The tactic obviously failed. It is a long principle in American law that private businesses can refuse service, or order off their property, anybody they want, so long as they aren’t discriminating on the basis of protected class reasons.

Baffert is not suspended anywhere in the country. He is merely personally banned by Churchill Downs which is fed up with Baffert’s massive number of medication violations and the tendency of his horses to drop dead for no apparent reason. Churchill Downs is a bad company and has damaged racing but in the Baffert case the company is doing the right thing. Many believe the Baffert ban will be dropped next year. But this year is the 150th running of the Derby and Churchill officials did not want the spotlight stolen by the white-haired rogue that many believe is an inveterate cheat.

This year’s Derby field is top heavy. At least 13 of the 20 horses entered seem way overmatched. Since Rich Strike’s shocking upset in 2022 (he never won another race in his life), bettors seem to be indiscriminately throwing money at crazy long shots as they seek a massive payday. That could lead to more generous prices than you’d expect on some of this year’s stronger horses.

There is a chance of rain both Friday and Saturday and that can affect how the track plays. As my picks are made before that, I am not able to take into consideration any track biases that may emerge. I like a couple of closers in the Derby but if, for example, the track seems to be favoring speed, adjust accordingly.

I will assess every horse in the field. If there are late scratches, I will not be able to update this site. Simply throw out any horse I use in my wagers if that horse is scratched. I actually prefer not to post suggested wagers but people simply demand it. The problem is that some people bet several thousand dollars and others bet three bucks. There is no way to post a betting strategy that accommodates both. I do suggest ramping up or down the size of the wagers to fit your budget. Also, the best bet in horse racing is old fashioned win, place and show. That’s because the house edge (the percentage of the pool taken out by the track) is lowest on these bets. I suggest making win place and show bets the backbone of your betting. But I understand some people are trying to hit the home run and make a fortune and will gravitate on the very hard to hit trifectas and superfectas.

The wild cards in this year’s race are Fierceness and Forever Young. Fierceness, last year’s two year old champ, has run five times. His three wins were eye-popping but the two losses were ugly. He’s a horse that seems to quit when faced with adversity. Deciding whether to play him or not is basically guesswork. Forever Young is unbeaten in five starts but none of those races were in America. He won the UAE Derby in Dubai and the Saudi Derby in Saudi Arabia but no winner of either of those races has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Forever Young raced his two year old races in Japan and Japanese racing is now better than that in the United States and Japanese horses are killing it in races all over the globe. But the Derby is an oddball race with a huge field and foreign training methods don’t seem to work in getting a horse ready for this race. That makes him another very hard horse to make a decision on.

Then there’s Sierra Leone. Boy, has he looked good. But he comes from way off the pace and that’s really hard to do in a 20-horse field with all the traffic and the kickback of dirt from front-running horses.

The preferred method of trainers to get a horse to win the Derby has changed. Less is now more. Most Derby winners race only twice as three year olds anymore. In years past, they could run five or more times. This allows the fresh horses to peak on Derby day but it also shortens their careers as many are simply fried after such a brutal race with lack of proper foundation.

THE FIELD

#1 DORNOCH – The post position is terrible and horses that draw the rail are often finished before the first turn because of traffic problems and such. Dornoch has run good races but hasn’t really improved since his career began last year. He is a brother of last year’s Derby winner.

#2 SIERRA LEONE – The post position isn’t ideal but he may be able to overcome it because he lacks early speed and will drop back toward the rear anyway. He is the most consistent horse in the race and won the Risen Star Stakes in Louisiana and the Blue Grass in Kentucky in his two races this year. He has the right rider in Tyler Gaffalione who has won the riding title at Churchill Downs eight different race meets and knows how to ride this track. While Sierra comes from well off the pace, he makes his big move in the middle of the race and shouldn’t be all that far back at the top of the stretch. His trainer, Chad Brown, is arguably the most successful in America, and this would be his first Derby winner. I believe the Blue Grass was the strongest of this year’s Derby preps and I am giving all of the horses that ran in the race a chance to run very strongly in the Derby. Huge shot but must be lucky to get a clean trip.

#3 MYSTIK DAN – This is a longshot with a chance. He ran a huge race on a muddy track to win a stakes in Arkansas in February. He has an adaptable running style and an excellent underrated rider. Trainer Ken McPeek is the best trainer of long shots in key races in the country. This will be his fourth race of the year and that is not in sync with the profile of most recent Derby winners.

#4 CATCHING FREEDOM – Trainer Brad Cox’s horses always seem to run well in the Derby. This horse won the Louisiana Derby in March and hasn’t raced since which makes him the freshest horse in the race. Excellent jockey in Flavien Prat. The private clocker (workout analyst) I use isn’t sold on the horse’s current appearance.

#5 CATALYTIC – Trained by the controversial Saffie Joseph who was banned from Churchill Downs last year. This horse ran second in the Florida Derby but that’s a little misleading because winner Fierceness won the race by more than 13 lengths in a romp.

#6 JUST STEEL – Trained by the legend D. Wayne Lukas, the Antigo native who is getting close to 90. Lukas isn’t adapting to current training methods and has run this horse 11 times already including four times this year. Just Steel did run second in the Arkansas Derby. A win by this horse would be incredibly popular because of Lukas’ remarkable legacy. The young jockey, Keith Asmussen, is the son of the trainer of Track Phantom. I don’t see this horse winning but a top four finish is possible.

#7 HONOR MARIE – This horse is just a tad below the top contenders but obviously is a threat to win if he makes good improvement. He’s another deep closer who will have to work through traffic. His rider, Ben Curtis, never rode in the United States prior to this year but had a very successful season at Fair Grounds. Still, you’d like a rider with more dirt-racing experience (European tracks are either turf or synthetic.)

#8 JUST A TOUCH – This horse might win. I like him a lot. He’s making only his fourth career start but that’s no longer a negative and is more of a positive. He ran second in the strongly run Blue Grass and was leading most of the way. He is bred to love the 1 1/4 mile distance of the race. He has tactical speed which should have him sitting in third or fourth in the early going. Trained by Cox, who also has Catching Freedom and who, as mentioned above, gets peak performance out of his Derby horses. Jockey Florent Geroux is very good and is especially adept at avoiding traffic trouble. I have viewed every single workout of every horse in the race at Churchill Downs (all this is online now) and Just a Touch has been sensational. The workout analyst I use agrees with me. Horses that have strong pre-Derby workouts usually have a strong Derby. I have a concern about a strong pace and its impact on both this horse and Fierceness and think it will set up the closing run of Sierra Leone. But of my top three contenders, this one should be the best price. Don’t sleep on this one.

#9 ENCINO – Scratched.

#10 T O PASSWORD – He qualified for the race by winning a race in Japan that features an automatic entry to the Derby. But he has only two career starts. He has loads of natural speed and there’s a chance he will be on the lead. While I prefer lightly raced horses and love horses from Japan, this is an awfully big ask.

#11 FOREVER YOUNG – He’s unbeaten with five wins in three different countries. But none of them is the United States and foreign based horses simply do not win the Kentucky Derby. BUT! The speed figures in his wins this year in Saudi Arabia and Dubai were outstanding. His trainer has shipped horses to America before and—-I know this seems nuts——they always seem to win. His Japanese based rider has no experience running a rodeo like the Kentucky Derby. The horse has been kept wide in his previous races because he doesn’t like the “kickback” from the dirt of the frontrunners. There is no race with more kickback than the 20-horse Derby. If this was an eight horse field I’d pick him to win because I think he is the best horse in the race. His breeding is as strong as that of any dirt horse in the history of horse racing and while the sire and dam are Japanese, the bloodlines all trace back to American superstars. But it’s not an eight horse field. He has a huge chance to win but, as stated, there are quite a few negatives.

#12 TRACK PHANTOM – I have him in the middle of the pack. He is very talented but gave up the lead in the stretch in his last two races. I forgive that in lightly raced horses but this one has seven starts. He’s talented but he’s not one of my top picks.

#13 WEST SARATOGA – His speed figures are way too slow. The only reason to consider him is that crazy longshots have won the Derby before. But the vast majority of them run near the back of the field.

#14 ENDLESSLY – He won the Derby prep run on the synthetic track in Kentucky. But this race will be his first ever on dirt and there is no evidence he will improve on it.

#15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT – He wins his races and looks good doing it but the times of the races come back slow. Trained by Chad Brown who also has Sierra Leone. The biggest positive is the jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., who is the best rider in America.

#16 GRAND MO THE FIRST-  He’s never won a stakes race and finished 16 lengths behind Fierceness in the Florida Derby

#17 FIERCENESS – The enigma. As mentioned in my intro, he has raced five times with three eye popping wins and two brutally ugly losses. He just seems to quit if he isn’t on or close to the lead. He destroyed his competition in the Florida Derby (I was there and can attest with my own eyes) but that field was very weak. Trainer Todd Pletcher is as good as they come and owner Mike Repole is obsessed with the Derby. Veteran rider John Velazquez is still at the top of his game and the cleanest-riding jockey in the sport. If Fierceness breaks well from his wide post and gets clear sailing, he can win and might win by a lot. On pure talent, he is the best horse in the race. (Read that line again.) But in a wild race with a ridiculously large field like the Derby, where way more can go wrong than go right, it’s hard to pick a horse that doesn’t handle adversity.

#18 STRONGHOLD – He will be given consideration because of his California-based trainer who wins lots of races while also attracting a fair amount suspicion. The trainer learned his craft from one of the bigger racing cheats in the last few decades, the late Mike Mitchell. Well, what about this horse? He’s ultra-consistent but that’s why I don’t prefer him. I want a horse who is going to improve on Derby day and Stronghold has never run fast enough to win and runs the same speed figure every race.

#19 RESILIENCE – He should outrun his odds and has at least a small chance to win. Hall of Fame trainer and a hot veteran rider. He will have to overcome his wide post but has tactical speed and, while he doesn’t run real fast, he doesn’t seem to tire. He won the typically weakest Derby prep, the Wood Memorial in New York. I’m not sold on his breeding for a race this long. He’s one of those outsiders with a chance but not a big one.

#20 SOCIETY MAN –  He ran second to Resilience in the Wood so I have to rank him lower than Resilience. The big angle here is this is only the second Derby run for arguably the most famous jockey in the world over the last 40 years, the legendary Frankie Dettori. Dettori was based in Europe his whole career but is finishing his career in America and won lots of races in California this winter. He desperately wanted to get a ride in the Derby but ends up stuck with an outsider.

#21 EPIC RIDE –  if you want a crazy longshot with a chance to win and blow up the tote board, bet this horse. He ran third in the Blue Grass, which I have stated several times already was the strongest Derby prep (I think by far). But because it was only third place finished it is being overlooked. But Epic Ride ran fast enough to win both the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby and probably the Louisiana Derby. The wide post position sucks, especially for a speedy horse like this one that will have to be gunned the entire front stretch to angle over and get near the lead by the first turn. He’s bred to run forever and his “turf” pedigree is well-suited for Churchill Downs sand-based dirt track. I love Sierra Leone and Just a Touch in this race and those are the two horses who ran ahead of him in the Blue Grass. If you asked to pick a bomb rather than the likeliest winner I would tell you “Then, bet either Mystik Dan or Epic Ride.”

#22 MUGATU – As of the time I am writing this, he needs a scratch to get in. He’s been beaten badly in his last four races and I honestly can’t remember a single Derby winner ever who was coming off four rotten races.

THE PICKS

SUGGESTED WAGERS

(adjust dollar amount to your budget)

In order of preference

• Bet #8 Just a Touch to win place and show
• Make a smaller bet on #2 Sierra Leone to win place and show
• $15 exacta box 2-8 ($30)
• $2 exacta box 2-3-4-7-8–11-17-21 ($112)
• $5 exacta box 2-3-8-11-17 ($100)
• 50-cent trifecta 2-8-11-17 with 2-3-8-11-17–21 with all ($144)
• $1 trifecta box 2-3-8-11-17-21 ($120)
• 50 cent trifecta 2-8 with 2-8-11 with ALL ($36)

FRIDAY

I have no strong opinion at all on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks. If #15 Our Pretty Woman draws into the race, I would bet her (15-1 odds) along with #8 Tarifa (7-2).

OTHER SATURDAY RACES

I co-own a horse running in the Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes at Aqueduct named Green Up. It’s Race 10 with a post time of 4:39 central time. She is a super-talented filly that has been beset by some issues which have prevented her from winning a graded stakes, which we really want for her. Unfortunately, arguably the best filly in the entire country, Randomized, is entered in the race. Randomized is coming off a six month layoff but if she is close to her best she will win. Very aggravating that horse is entered in our race.

At Churchill Downs good value plays are #11 Coppice (5-1) in Race 7, the Distaff Turf Mile, #11 Cugino (10-1) in Race 9, the American Turf, #6 I’m Very Busy (4-1) in Race 11, the Turf Classic and #3 Gun Party (7-2) in Race 14, the last of the day.